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Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

Made In Indonesia : Investment momentum still favourable - Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - Asia

DB Access Indonesia Conference 29 Nov – 1 Dec 11, Jakarta

PUBLISHED REPORTS (Summaries attached pages 2)

CIMB Niaga – Raising capital to support growth

Snippets & Views

Bank Indonesia to remain on the sideline
It was widely expected that BI left policy rate unchanged at 6.75%, noting that "current BI rate level is still consistent with the efforts to maintain macro-economic and financial system stability and strong economic growth". The central bank also reiterated its view that inflation will remain within its target range of 4-6% in 2011. Note that inflation fell to 4.6%yoy in July from recent peak of 7.0% in January. The authorities expect inflationary pressure to ease as holiday effects drop out of the data in early September. Although BI expects the US credit rating downgrade to have limited impact on the Indonesian financial markets, we expect BI to remain on the sideline for the rest of the year, in response to the ongoing global financial market turmoil, worsening economic data in the US and Europe and correction in international commodity prices. (DB)

Isuzu to invest US$14.8m in Indonesia
The expansion is likely to be completed in 2012 and will involve 1) improving its network distribution by increasing the number of dealers from 86 to 170 [US$11.8m] and; 2) increasing the medium commercial truck GIGA by five models and ten variants [US$3m]. According to Hajime Koso, VP Director of Isuzu Astra Motor Indonesia (IAMI), this is part of their strategy to achieve sales target of 6,700 units by 2015 or 7% market share for the medium truck segment (Bisnis). DB: This shows the attractiveness of Indonesia's automotive industry given strong underlying demand due to expensive public transportation and poor infrastructure.

BCA Finance plans a Rp1tr bonds issuance in 1H12
In June, the finco arm of BCA already issued Rp1.1tr of bonds, whereby proceeds will be used to fund car-financing. This year, BCA Finance aims to grow financing by 27% yoy to Rp19tr. YTD July, total units of car financed reached 73.6k (+26% yoy) implying gross financing of Rp10.6tr (+22.6% yoy). (Bisnis) DB: New cars account for 67% of total financing and BCA Finance holds 13.2% market share for the segment. Through its finco, BCA has been able to boost its auto-financing. In June, the bank recorded auto-financing growth of 23.6% yoy and we should see accelerated growth in the second semester.

DB Bonds’ trader comment:
Bonds tumbled at the opening after some selling pressures from offshore accounts in the early morning. This pushed yields higher by 20-25bp across the curve. BI came into the market to restore some confidence, buying 15-20y papers. Sentiment reversed, and we saw local pension funds along with interbank buying long dates. MoF cancelled on the decision of not issuing any bonds in yesterday's auction. Yields finally closed 10-15bp higher. (Yield 1yr: 4.58, 5yr: 6.37, 10yr: 7.00)

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