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Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

CTRA:Solid, but better value elsewhere - Mandiri

CTRA booked Rp131bn in net profit during 1H11, which accounted for 46.5% of consensus estimate and 43.7% of ours. This is considerably good for CTRA, given historical revenue tends to be booked higher (55%-60%) in 2H. Quarterly earnings surged 211%, underpinned by significant 56% QoQ increase in landed-residential booking, combined with improving ASP. Our roll-over 12F valuation results in CTRA fair value of Rp944/share, which implies current share price trades at PER 23.5x and 44% discount to RNAV. Nonetheless, this looks expensive, in our view, as peers in our universe currently trades at an average PER of 20.6x and 56% discount to RNAV12F. We maintain Neutral on the stock.

Good 1H11 results. CTRA posted solid Rp131bn net profit during 1H11, grew by significant 45% YoY and 211% QoQ, which was above of our and consensus estimates. Strong 56% landed-residential booking during the quarter came as the main growth driver, supported by ASP acceleration, hence 1H1 gross margin improved to 47.1% vs. 1H10 of 46.0%. The upbeat trend should continue in 2H, although we expect margin to soften, due to more realization of apartment and new residential projects which incur lower margins.

Aggressive sales to boost profit, the highest in 7 years. In the meantime, CTRA’s 6M11 marketing sales were reported solid, reaching 48% of aggressively Rp3.2tn (+60%) FY11F sales target. The 12F profit is seen buoyant, as operating level we forecast will grow by 31% yoy, the highest at least in the past 7 years. Increasing mortgage availability from banks will remain as the main sales backbone that short term outlook is seen to continue favorable, in our view.

Outside Jakarta as main focus for residential going forward. The company assures commitment in taking active project expansion in order to sustain growth going forward. Outside Jakarta area will be its main focus for residential expansion, while Jakarta as the priority for high-rise projects.

Stay Neutral. Nonetheless, we maintain Neutral on CTRA, given the valuation. Our roll-over 12F valuation results in CTRA fair value of Rp944/share, implying current share price trades at PER 23.5x and 44% discount to RNAV. This is relatively expensive vs. peers in our universe that trade at average PE12F of 20.6x and 56% discount to RNAV.

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