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Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

Intiland Dev (DILD IJ; CP: IDR300; BUY) Target Price: IDR600 - BNP Paribas

Key issues
ƒ Development progress on existing projects is doing well with 1Park Residences performing better than expected in terms of presales (75%) and construction. Will launch second phase by end of the year.
ƒ The management is still talking with a prospective foreign sovereign wealth fund to build the TB Simatupang area and a Japanese partner for 1Park Residences phase 2 with the aim to get the branding as well as future cheaper funding. If agreements can not be reached they will still go ahead with the projects with sufficient bank loan facilities from Bukopin, BCA and Bank Mayapada.
ƒ The first ID Homes, a small development area with 20% gross margin located in south Jakarta, is 75% sold and is expected to be sold out this year. They are buying 10ha land ex Villa Delima in South Jakarta to build and sell houses with the price range of IDR1.6-4b each.
ƒ For the budget Whiz hotel, there are eight confirmed locations plus six more likely to be confirmed all over Indonesia. The second hotel will start operation in
November 2011 in Semarang (148 rooms). Occupancy rate in the first hotel in Jogja is better than expected at 80%.
ƒ The industrial land in E Java is doing well with plans to expand the area and to
acquire more land in the same area.
ƒ The permit issue for Graha Natura and the Tangerang development is expected to
be resolved within 1-2 months, upon which they can book the marketing sales into
P&L for Graha Natura.
ƒ The company did not report high revenue growth in 1H as with other property companies, given that their new projects were only started last year and it takes
12-18 months for marketing sales to be recognised in income statements. They expect a continuity of sales recognition in the coming quarters. Talaga Bestari to the west of Jakarta has launched new clusters with new facilities selling at higher prices (double the previous prices). This is expected to support revenue in 2H11 and 2012.

Questions raised
ƒ What is the profile of 1Park Residences buyers and their price appreciation so far? Most of them are from the Kebayoran Baru area with 50% planning to live in the apartments, 50% for investment purposes. About 80% bought using instalments and the rest using bank mortgages. The price has gone up from IDR11.5m/sqm when they first launched in 1Q10 to the current level of IDR16m/sqm.
ƒ Will the company expand the industrial estates outside East Java and what is the expansion plan? No, they will concentrate in East Java given less competition, lower prices and good relationships with the authorities. Intiland is working to acquire 300ha land bank for industrial parks.
ƒ What is the expected capital expenditure? IDR1t in 2011 and IDR1.5t in 2012.
ƒ Why are there no new developments for the Surabaya market? Graha Natura will be launched within 1-2 months while the company has to keep revising plans to develop the 2-km commercial area in Graha Famili as the land prices have increased significantly, making it less attractive if they sell the projects using the current plan.
ƒ Why has management swapped between Hendro Gondokusumo and Lennard Ho? Hendro has been in the industry for 40 years and his expertise and connections is required for government licenses. Decision making should also be faster.

Current view
ƒ Trading at 67% discount to the estimated RNAV, we maintain our BUY call on Intiland with TP of IDR600, based on 40% discount to the estimated RNAV.

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