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Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011

Indocement (INTP IJ) raised prices 1-2% in selected areas in Java starting July by Di Shui and Dee Senaratne - CLSA

Few highlights of the meetings – see attached for details:
· INTP thinks that SMGR and SMCB have started to import clinker.
· This implies competitors are operating at full capacity, thus 1) incremental demand growth in 2H will be met by INTP; 2) both SMGR and SMCB should be happy to follow price increase (since imports offer low margins).
· INTP will start 2m tons debottlenecking project at Citeureup this year. 2 m more tons by 2013.
· Have identified Pati (C Java) as ground for new greenfield factory. In process of acquiring land, quarry, and requisite licenses. AMDAL study on going. Interesting to note Pati is where SMGR made a failed bid for new factory, because they could not get local gov't approval. INTP has central and local gov't support. Hopes to break ground in 2012. Factoring in 2.5m tons additional capacity by YE15,
· This will bring total capacity to 23.1m tons by 2015. Vs 18.6m at ye10. INTP is also considering another ex-Java project which would add 2.5m tons more by 2017. To be funded by large cash balance, and nearly US$500m of operating CF every year.
· Indo demand is picking up as we head into seasonally stronger 2H. More resilient than 2008 given FDI pick up. Margin upside from lower coal/fuel prices in 2H.
· INTP is best poised for upward earnings revision in 2011, given most excess capacity (volume upside) and higher ASP initiative. And growing pipeline of additional capacity strengthens longer term growth profile.
· INTP valuations looking attractive now trading at 11.9x earnings. We would be a BUYERS at these levels.

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