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Selasa, 09 Agustus 2011

2Q11 GDP: Increasing capacity to grow - Mandiri

Indonesia’s GDP expanded strongly by 6.49% yoy or up 2.87% qoq, in line with our and consensus estimation at 6.48% yoy and 6.50%, respectively. Growth momentum was driven by remain robust domestic demand and strong pick up in exports. Private consumption grew by 4.6% yoy, while investment activity surged by 9.2% yoy. Interestingly, exports growth accelerated, which suggested strong volume improvement was taking place, despite gloomy global economy. On the sector basis, manufacturing sector robustly grew by 6.1% yoy, which is the highest growth since 1Q05.

We expect to see a more healthy growth to continue ahead, as investment spending will likely boost economic capacity. Thus, with inflationary pressure to be at a manageable level, we do not expect another increase in benchmark rate this year. Currently, we raise our economic growth forecast to 6.5% and 6.7% yoy from previously 6.4% and 6.6% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

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