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Minggu, 12 Juni 2011

"A Surabaya story": Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ) - CLSA

Sarina has just written a report on Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ). This is small cap (US$172mn market cap) property company, part of Ciputra group.

CTRS is a strong property developer in Greater Surabaya, with the largest township of 1,701ha.

Why do we think exposure to Surabaya is interesting?

Surabaya is the second largest city in Indonesia and a trade centre for the (now booming) eastern part of Indonesia. The property market in Surabaya, as described by the city’s most successful property agent, is currently very strong. The agent has not seen any gain like this since 2005. In the past six months, property prices have moved up considerably: 40-60% in the favourite areas. The city is indeed recovering from the mudflow disaster.

CTRS is also looking very attractive from valuation standpoint. It is trading at 64% discount to our conservative NAV (Rp2,120/share vs. company’s NAV number of Rp2,825/share). In term of PER, CTRS is trading at undemanding 11.8x 12PER. Balance sheet is strong with capex to be funded internally and by loan facility.

Key concern here is perhaps stock liquidity. Patience is required.

Another interesting finding: when researching CTRS, Sarina also found out that toll road company Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) has a big plan for greater Surabaya’s inner and outer road. Once all projects completed in 2013-14, JSMR will be a dominant operator in Surabaya with a total of 137km network.

Other key points from the report:

CTRS is a strong property developer in Greater Surabaya, with the largest township of 1,701ha.
CTRS targets a +65% YoY in sales this year. 4M11 sales were already 39% of this.
More toll roads to come in Greater Surabaya. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) is actively building its network there. It has three toll road projects of 83km, after recently acquiring Gempol-Pandaan. The first section of Surabaya-Mojokerto will be operational this year, while Gempol-Pasuruan and Gempol-Pandaan will be operational in 2012/13. Now it is eyeing two more projects: the inner city toll road and Mojokerto-Kertosono.
Astra Int’l (ASII IJ) is also set to benefit from more infrastructure (= more car and motorcycle sales).
Ciputra World Surabaya to boost recurring income. The super block of 7.7ha will feature a mall opening on 22 July 2011. This can double the company’s recurring income, currently contributing just 8% to total revenue. 90% of the space has been secured for tenants, with Metro as the anchor. A hotel will also be part of the project in the future.
Liquidity is a challenge, patience is needed. The stock lacks liquidity, however, with US$0.1m daily volume.

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