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Kamis, 16 Juni 2011

Indonesia Market Strategy - Re-awakening? - Credit Suisse

● We believe Indonesia needs to achieve 7%+ economic growth for the market to significantly re-rate further. However, in order to achieve 7%+ real GDP growth, we believe annual investments must surge to US$364 bn per year for the next five years, 58% higher than the 2010A level.
● When India’s investment to GDP ratio surged by 14% over five years, its equity market’s valuation re-rated by 117% to peak at 57% premium to MSCI NJA (based on P/B less ROE), 23.4x P/E. Indonesia currently trades at 30% premium to MSCI NJA, at 16x P/E, implying potential for 27–46% upside from the current level.
● Developments to watch: First, the land reform bill needs to be passed for the country to start moving into a higher investment cycle. Second, evidence on ability to secure necessary funding and that the investments are well-targeted on the right sector must be ensured. Third, there should be satisfactory delivery on investment realisations.
● Learning from India, we prepare our long-term portfolio for Indonesia, aiming to benefit from the country’s entry into a multiyear higher investment cycle, which comprises BMRI, BBNI, UNTR and SMGR.

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