Asia Palm Oil Sector: Too Much of a Good Thing - Credit Suisse

Sales commentary: Credit Suisse forecast CPO price to average M$2,950/ton in 2011 and M$2,500/ton in 2012. With YTD average price of M$3,534/ton, 2H11 CPO price should average M$2,366/ton for our 2011 average price to materialize. We reckon the CPO price momentum to be positive in July/August on spiking demand – due to Ramadan and Eid Al-Fitr – and urge investors to ride the wave. We like SIMP, London Sumatra (LSIP, N, PT Rp2,900) and Astra Agro (AALI, N, PT Rp26,000).

· Analyst Tan Ting Min reiterates her Underweight rating on the plantation sector on rich valuations and bearish CPO price outlook in the short-run.
· Ting Min’s bearish view on the CPO price is based on: 1) strong production rebounds in Indonesia and Malaysia , partly due to weather improvements; 2) demand rationing in the export market; 3) record soybean production in Brazil and WASDE upward revision on soy stock/usage ratio.
· For stock calls, Ting Min’s key Underperform are IOI Corp. (IOI MK, U, PT M$5.0) and Sime Darby (SIME MK, U, PT M$8.0). She maintains her Outperform rating on Wilmar International (WIL SP, O, PT S$6.4), as China’s proxy, and Salim Ivomas (SIMP, O, PT Rp1,850), on attractive valuations.