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Kamis, 16 Juni 2011

Indonesia Banks Big Picture - April 2011 Bank Data: Growth Continues, LDR Touches 81% - Citigroup

 Key takeaway(s) — April 2011 banking data highlight: 1) Lending rates are inching down; 2) LDR has jumped to near-peak of 81%, earlier than past peaks in August; 3) Stable deposit rates, with BBCA cutting savings rates; 4) Sustained loan growth at 24%, led by private national banks; and 5) The gross NPL ratio is at 2.8% (end-March). Historic trends show that April accounts for c.8% of full-year loan disbursements and is relatively flat for incremental deposits. Our Top Buys are BMRI and BBRI, and Top Sell is BBCA.
 BI monetary policy statement puts end-May loan growth at 23.3% — This translates into May net disbursements of Rp43trn, slightly below the record for May (Rp46trn in 2010). The YTD growth of 7% is the same as 2010. BI expects 2011 loan growth to at least be the same as 2010’s 23.3%.
 Lending rates down 2bps in April 2011 for all 3 segments — The current rates for local currency working capital loans are 12.3% (38% of the total loans), for investment 12.16% (16% of the total) and for consumer 14.81% (31% of the total). Compared with average lending rates in 2010, the 2011 (4M) rates are down 73bps for working capital, 43bps for investment and 50bps for consumer.
 LDR back to peak of 81% — The Rp LDR stands at 80.5% and FCY at 81.8%. The LDR tends to peak in August at c.81%. In 2011, however, it touched 81% in April itself. This is due to strong YTD loan growth of 4.6% and government fiscal operations. The government is a borrower in 1H (taking liquidity out of the system) and spends in the last quarter.
 Saving deposit rates down, term deposits stable — The Rp saving deposit rates (30% of total) declined 6bps (due to private national banks, of which BBCA is the largest). The April 2011 saving deposit rate of 2.56% is 11bps lower than the 1Q CY11 average and 42bps lower than the CY10 average. The rate on 1M time deposits (21% of toal) of 6.8% is 4bps higher than the 1Q CY11 average and 3bps lower than the CY10 average.
 Loan growth at 24% — The 12M (ending April) loan growth of 24% was driven by working capital (27%), investment (25%) and consumer (20%) loans. Loan growth is dominated by Trade (+25%), Business Services (+52%) and Social Services (+44%). Manufacturing has picked up but is lagging at 15%. In consumer loans, mortgage (+27%) and vehicle (+47%) loans dominate. Private national banks with 30% growth are leading, while state-owned banks have picked up to 20%. Foreign banks are lagging at 18% (the LDR is 101%).
 Gross NPLs at 2.8% (end-March) — The gross NPL ratio has been rising after bottoming in Dec 2010 at 2.56%.

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