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Minggu, 12 Juni 2011

Flat 4-wheeler sales in May due to Japan's catastrophe ASII (TP Rp7,900) - Deutsche Bank

Four-wheeler May sales: 60,871 units (+1% YoY; 0% MoM)
Four-wheeler sales remain flat in May mainly due to capacity constraint following
Japan's catastrophe. Meanwhile, a marked MoM improvement by
Daihatsu and Honda was not sufficient to offset weaker sales by other
brands such as Toyota that recorded -7% MoM & YoY.

Expecting car sales to normalize by June/July
We view the weak car sales as only temporary and we expect car sales to
improve as production normalizes by June/July. Overall, we believe industry
and Astra numbers are still roughly on track with our 2011 forecast of 863k
units and 474k units, respectively. As of 5M11, 4-wheeler sales reached
347k units for industry and 187k units for Astra, and would imply monthly
sales of 79k units (industry) and 44k units (Astra) needed to achieve our 2011
forecasts.

Reiterate Buy rating on Astra Int'l with TP of Rp79,000
We remain upbeat on the long-term outlook of Astra, which is the prime
beneficiary to credit expansion in Indonesia, high consumer confidence and
doubling of middle-income population. The stock is still attractive trading at
14x 2011F earnings, some 10% discount to the market.

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