Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 14 Juni 2011

BUMI, Show us the money - BoAML

Our take on $2bn bond issue: earnings dilutive, no direct cash
Vallar announced last Friday that it will issue $2bn in CBs at 2% coupon, to BUMI, to buy a 75% stake in Bumi Resources Mineral (BRM). This means: 1) BUMI is not going to receive the cash immediately (unless it sells the CBs immediately) – there is a plan to list the CBs but we doubt it will be 100% - Bakrie and Rothschild could face a massive dilution risk; or, otherwise BUMI has to wait until 2017 to receive Vallar shares (unlikely scenario because we understand it will not be allowed under British law); 2) BUMI will face an earnings dilution. BUMI earned US$236mn in equity via net income of associates (primarily from BRM) in 2010 vs potential coupon receipt of US$40mn.

How much earnings dilution could potentially be?
Assuming no BRM (all BRM shares are transferred to Vallar) in 2010 and no debt repayment, BUMI’s earnings would likely see a reduction of 20%. But on a fullyear basis, the impact on 2012E earnings will be around 13% (as we have assumed declining earnings contribution from NNT). BUMI would trade at 13x 2012E P/E under that scenario. We have kept our earnings estimate mostly unchanged for now.

Raising PO - factoring in US$600mn reduction in CIC loan
Assuming BUMI would successfully reduce US$1.2bn of CIC loan (via CB proceeds) by October 2012 and the CB deals go through, we raise our PO from Rp2900 to Rp3335 based on a target 2012E P/E of 12x. Do note we have valued the rest of Indo coal players with NPV. There is not much upside potential to our PO. We have kept our Neutral rating unchanged.

Not much upside even under the best-case scenario
Assuming BUMI manages to reduce US$1.9bn loan from CIC by end 2011 and the CB deals go through, BUMI would only trade at 9.5x 2012E P/E, which is comparable to SAR and ITMG, without paying for all the uncertainty surrounding BUMI. But we understand only US$600mn of BUMI loan can be repaid by October 2011 but the rest US$1.2bn can only be repaid by October 2012 and 2013.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 08.12

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)