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Rabu, 15 Juni 2011

Regional coal - Coaltrans: Positive going into 2012 - Macquarie

Event
§ We attended the Coaltrans 17th annual conference in Bali with more than 1,800
participants. The general mood of the conference was positive, with most participants still suggesting a higher coal price environment going into 2012. This
is being driven mainly by Indian and Indonesian domestic demand as well as the
Japanese reconstruction story. This is also in line with our positive view on the
ASEAN coal sector in medium term.

Impact
§ Positive thermal coal story in 2012. The majority of participants suggested a
potentially higher JFY12 coal settlement price towards US$130-140/t vs the
US$129.85/t coal settlement in 2011 and our current JFY12 forecast of US$120/t.
This is mainly being driven by increasing demand from India and Indonesia (as
they increase their electrification ratios) and the Japanese reconstruction story.
§ China increasingly important to seaborne trade and prices. This is especially
so given the recent re-emergence of import arbitrage opportunities (mainly driven
by rising Chinese domestic prices). We currently forecast Chinese imports to
reach roughly 109mt in 2011, or about 15% of total seaborne demand (down from
114mt in 2010, due to the lack of import arbitrage in 1Q11), and increasing to
112mt in 2012. At the current price (with the recent hike in Chinese domestic coal
prices), we see roughly a +/-US$5/t arbitrage opportunity for Indonesia’s low
quality coal to be imported to China (which is in line with our channel checks with
Indonesian coal producers and traders that suggest increasing enquiries from
China).
§ Indonesia increasing coal production by 10-15% pa in the next 3-5 years.
Most participants suggested that Indonesia's coal production in 2011 would be
roughly 310-370mt (with 31% of participants expecting 310-339mt and 28% 340-
370mt). This compares with the Wood Mackenzie coal production forecast of
about 341mt and our forecast of 363mt.
§ Improvement in regulatory environment but still long way to go. Some 41%
of the participants thought that implementation of the mining law has impeded
mining activities. Recent issues regarding the regulatory environment include
minimum coal pricing (HBA) for royalty calculations, clarity over borrow use
permits, and the recent forest moratorium. Further, there was also discussion on
potential coal upgrading for export (which in our view will not be applied in the
short-term given the lack of economically feasible coal upgrading technology in
Indonesia).

Outlook
§ In conclusion, it seems that the general mood of the conference was relatively
positive towards 2012 and beyond. This is consistent with our medium-term view
and supportive of our preference towards the ASEAN coal sector for its attractive
production growth, pricing exposure and valuations (trading on around 10x 2012E
PER). Our medium-term key picks remain SAR, HRUM, PTBA, and INDY.

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