Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Minggu, 12 Juni 2011

Bank BTN (BBTN IJ), Super-sized Subsidized Housing Opportunity, BUY, TP Rp2,400 - CLSA

CLSA Indonesia Bank analyst Bret “the pool” Ginesky reiterates his BUY call on Bank BTN (BBTN IJ) and TP of Rp2,400 (45% upside). BTN has the #1 mortgage market share in Indonesia and is well positioned to build on this as the primary beneficiary of a super-sized subsidised mortgage budget in 2011. We expect the company to originate at least Rp6.2tn in subsidized mortgages in 2011.

Historically, BTN has utilized 90% or more of the subsidized funds, implying that BTN could originate over Rp8.0tn in subsidized mortgages in 2011. The average mortgage value is below Rp52.0m, thereby implying over 154,000 new subsidized mortgages alone. YTD the bank has originated nearly 13,000 non-subsidized units and over 33,000 subsidized mortgages.

Key Points from the report:
· BBTN is positioned to be the beneficiary of a supersized subsidised mortgage budget in 2011. The carryover from 2010 (Rp1.7tn) and 2011 (est. Rp3.5tn) implies that over Rp8.0tn in subsidized mortgages can be originated in 2011 and BBTN typically originates over 90% of these mortgages.
· The upcoming Rp2.5tn senior bond issuance’s yield will be nearly 200bps below last year’s issuance.
· We anticipate cross selling opportunities as BTN expands its consumer lending business to ancillary products for mortgage borrowers.
· Valuation: Shares trade at a discount to Indonesian peers, currently at 2.0x/11.7x 11CL PBV and PE. Our target price is based on a 2011 PBV/PE of 2.9x and PE 17.4x.

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