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Minggu, 12 Juni 2011

Economy: BI keeps rate unchanged at 6.75%; the next rate hike seems distant - Mandiri

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% in governor board’s meeting today, in line with our and consensus expectation. Tame inflation until May11 (ytd only contributed around 0.51%) and continuing capital inflow have boosted the central bank’s confidence to keep interest rate unchanged. We reiterate our view that on-year inflation is likely to be in a declining trend in the second part of the year due to high-base effect, improved weather, and possible delay of fuel consumption rationing to late part of the year. Thus, we expect the next rate hike may be pushed forward accordingly. At this juncture, we maintain our inflation forecast at 5.7% yoy by YE11, with the next rate hike will be in the 4Q11of the year.

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