Indonesia Bank Sector - Lower rates or merely normalising? - Credit Suisse

● At the first glance, Indonesian banking system’s lending and deposit rates seem to be on the way down and, if structural, it implies: (1) higher competition in the lending market and (2) abundant liquidity available on the funding side.
● However, spread of lending and time deposit rates to the policy rate have indeed just returned to the pre-global financial crisis level. During the global financial crisis, spread of lending and time deposit rates to policy rates widened. About 30 months after the global financial crisis, lending rates spread to policy rate have just returned to the pre-global financial crisis level, while time deposit
rates remain 50 bp higher.
● The extended period required for lending and deposit rates to normalise imply that: (1) penetration and competition in the lending market remains relatively low and (2) funding availability remains relatively tight.
● Under such conditions, we continue to like banks with excess liquidity and a strong CASA franchise, combined with relatively undemanding valuations, namely BMRI and BBNI. We like BBRI given the bank’s undemanding valuations.