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Jumat, 17 Juni 2011

Strong May cement numbers by Di Shui - CLSA

Domestic sales continue to gather momentum as we head into the dry(er) season.

Domestic sales of 4.146m for the month was 9.1% higher MoM, 19.5% higher YoY. This brings total Indonesian consumption to 18.4m tons YTD, a 13.5% rise over 5M10.

The country’s top three producers (Semen Gresik, Indocement, Holcim) captured 88% of the market, lead by SMGR (41.7%), INTP (31.3%), and SMCB (15.4%).

Of note, SMGR domestic sales of 1.7m tons represents a 10% increase MoM, 25% increase YoY. Given limited excess capacity, and no confirmation of debottlenecking, we suspect the company may have started to buy/import clinker (repackaged under in-house brands) to maintain market share. Pls see attached file for more details.

Maintain our Overweight call on the Indonesian cement sector. BUY INTP and SMCB. O-PF SMGR.

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