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Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

XL-AXIATA (EXCL): ln-line Strong +26% Y/Y 1Q11 EPS – maintain Outperform - Credit Suisse

EXCL remains the #3 largest Cellular Operator with 39,838 Average Subscribers and ARPU Rp34,313 during 1Q11. At Rp6,750, EXCL is trading on 14.5x-12.7x 2011F-12F PER and implied 7% upside to upgraded DCF Rp7,200. We maintain Outperform rating.

· Colin McCallum (Daily attached): XL reported 9.0% YoY growth in net cellular service revenue in 1Q11, driven by a 23.5% YoY increase in SMS revenues and a 43.6% YoY increase in data and other VAS revenues as smartphone penetration continues to rise. On a QoQ basis, cellular revenue was down 4.0%. We put this down largely to seasonal factors , but the fact that voice revenues were down 6.3% YoY suggests some lagged effects from Telkomsel’s October 2010 Rp20/min offering (which has thankfully now been withdrawn from the market). XL’s operating expenses remain very well controlled, resulting in 10.3% YoY EBITDA growth into 1Q11 and 25.6% YoY growth in normalised net profit. Relative to our full-year forecasts, XL has already achieved 22.3%, and 22.6% of our FY11 net revenue and EBITDA forecasts, respectively.

· We have revised up our FY11 earnings forecast by 3.8% on lower depreciation and interest charges. Lower capex, together with rolling our DCF to 12 months forward, raises our target price 7.5% to Rp7,200. Outperform rating relative to the JCI maintained, though we see more potential for upside in Indosat or parent Axiata at present.

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