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Rabu, 04 Mei 2011

BORN (TP Rp2,000) : 1Q11: Sales are below expectation but earnings are in line - Credit Suisse

● BORN posted 1Q11 net income of Rp426 bn, 18.9% of our FY11 estimate, 19.8% of consensus estimate, and in line with our expectation. 1Q11 revenue reached Rp1,202 bn, up 123.8% YoY, 16.1% of our FY11 estimate and 16.2% of consensus estimate.
Sales volume was 532,609 tonne, below our expectation or 16.6% of our FY11 estimate of 3.2 mn tonne.
● Sales volume was below our expectation given delayed shipments as BORN was waiting for BHP pricing for 2Q11. However, earnings were in line, given better ASP and good cost management. We also slightly decrease our cost assumptions by
3.8% and 3.2% and Rp/US$ forecasts to Rp8,620 and Rp8,175 for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
● We expect BORN to still be able to meet our volume target of 3.2 mn tonne as it is ramping up production throughout 2011. We still expect earnings upside to our forecasts from ASP as BORN has been negotiating in the spot market during 2Q11 with benchmark price ranging between US$300/t and US$330/t.
● We maintain OUTPERFORM and target price of Rp2,000.

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