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Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

JSMR:Strong bottom-line growth - Mandiri

JSMR booked 1Q11 net income of Rp373bn (+27.4%yoy, +60.0%qoq) representing 26.1% of our and 25.8% of consensus estimates. Such results were contributed from higher revenue and margins. JSMR posted 1Q11 revenue of Rp1.2tn (+13.8%yoy, -1.2%qoq) in line with our (24.1%) and consensus forecats (23.8%), while operating margin increased to 52.1% vs. 48.1% in 1Q10. We expect 12 out of 14 JSMR’s toll roads will increase their tariffs by around 8-12% in September 2011, resulting in effective tariff increase in FY11F of around 2.0%-3.0%yoy. We maintain our Buy recommendation on JSMR, which is trading at PER11F of 16.0x.

Jakarta Outer Ring Road contributed 21.6% of JSMR’s revenue. The biggest revenue contribution came from the Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR), exceeding the Cawang-Tomang-Cengkareng (also known as Jakarta Inner Ring Road or JIRR), the busiest toll road in Indonesia. JORR booked revenue of Rp241bn (+15.5%yoy) translating into 21.6% of JSMR’s revenue, while revenue from. The JIRR was Rp226bn (+16.4%yoy).

Traffic volume up by 12.0%yoy. In 1Q11 traffic volume in JSMR’s 14 toll roads grew by 12.0%yoy to 254mn vehicles translating into 24.7% of our FY estimates of 1.03mn vehicles. The highest traffic growth occurred in Jagorawi which was up by 37.6%yoy to 41.3mn vehicles, while traffic in the Bogor Outer Ring Road (BORR) section 1 was up by 34.0%yoy to 2.1mn vehicles. Average daily traffic in the BORR in 1Q11 reached 23,392traffic/day compared with 17,450traffic/day in 1Q10, lower than JSMR’s expectation of 28,000traffic/day. BORR section 1 is the latest new toll road operated by JSMR, which started operation on 23 Nov’09.

Stronger margins. In 1Q11, JSMR’s revenue increased by 13.8%yoy to Rp1.2tn, while operating expenses increased by 5.0%yoy to Rp553bn. Toll road maintenance expenses and general & administrative expense, the two biggest expenses, increased by 0.2%yoy and 11.7%yoy, respectively. Consequently, JSMR booked higher operating margins of 52.1% in 1Q11 vs. 35.7% in 1Q10. Furthermore, net margin was 32.3% in 1Q11 vs. 28.8% in 1Q10.

Tariff increase and traffic growth are the short- term catalysts. We expect JSMR will increase the tariffs on 12 of its toll roads by around 8-12% in September 2011. Therefore, the effective tariff increase will start effectively in 4Q11 resulting in effective tariff increase in FY11F of around 2.0%-3.0%yoy. Meanwhile, we expect traffic volume in FY11F to reach 1.03mn vehicles (+7.3%yoy) vs. 957mn vehicles in FY10. Traffic on the 12 toll roads are representing 80% of JSMR’s traffics.

Valuations. We maintain our forecast on JSMR. Our TP is Rp4,100/share, translating into PER11F-12F of 19.5x and 16.3x, respectively. We maintain our Buy recommendation on JSMR.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.32

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