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Kamis, 05 Mei 2011

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Benefitting from Recovery - AAA

Bank Mandiri posted 1Q11 net profit of Rp3.8 trillion, indicating that for FY2011 the bank could easily deliver over ten trillion bottom line profit to investors, while ROE is at a premium level of 25%. Main catalyst remains the recovery of W/O loans. Apart from it, favorable economic environment will provide a strong back up for further loan growth. BUY.

± The Sell-off Shares of GIAA Boosts Net Profit by More Than 80% yoy
Mandiri reported 1Q11 net profit of Rp3.8 trillion, a surge by more than 80% yoy, and the highest since 4Q07. The number accounted for 30% of our estimate and 31% of consensus. Source of such gigantic net income growth is the sale of Garuda Indonesia’s shares (GIAA) amounted to Rp1.4 trillion. BMRI owned those shares from previous GIAA’s debt to equity swap. This has increased fee based income by 144% yoy to Rp3.6 trillion. NIM (excluding fee income), decreased to 4.9% as yield on assets plunged to 8.7% from 8.9%. We project NIM to average at 5.9% as portion of loan to total earnings asset will go higher in order to comply with BI’s LDR level.

± Strong Growth in Every Segment
LDR in 1Q11 stood at 70.2%, increased from 64.1% in 1Q10. Loan grew 26% yoy, 3% ytd and accounted for 60% of total earnings assets as opposed to only 55% in 1Q10. In every segment, loan growth was strong (see table below). The corporate loan portion decreased to 42% from 46% in 1Q11, which is good, as the bank could preserve its CAR, because corporate loan carries the highest risk weighting. Deposits grew 14% yoy, with saving deposits as the largest contributor, lifting up CASA ratio to 58% from 56% previously.

± Reiterate BUY - TP Rp8,500
We maintain our bullish stance on BMRI because: 1) the big potential of receiving recovery from written-off loans, estimated at around Rp6.2 trillion in total. 2) favorable economic environment to back up loan growth, 3) ROE and dividend yield, are still at premium level. We maintain our TP at Rp8,500, reflecting 3.5x PBV vs. current market valuation at 3.0x PBV. Historically, BMRI was traded at its 3.8x PBV at +2 std.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.52

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