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Kamis, 05 Mei 2011

ICBP:Steady as it goes

ICBP posted 1Q11 net income of Rp434bn (+17.8%yoy, +6.4%qoq), which was in line with our and consensus estimates. The YoY slight contraction in instant noodle industry volume might indicate that consumer purchasing power was lagging behind industry-wide ASP increase in 1Q11. This risk is still lingering in conjuction with our economist’s view of no more deflation this year. However, ICBP may be able to maintain its profitability in the next quarters due to margin improvement as ASP increase in mid 1Q11 should fully come into effect. We maintain our Neutral stance on ICBP, which is trading at PER11-12F of 16.3x-14.8x, some 10% premium to its parent company.

1Q11 results were inline with our and consensus FY11 estimate. ICBP booked 1Q11 revenue of Rp4.7tn (+8.6%yoy, +7.1%qoq), translating into net profit of Rp434bn (+17.8%yoy, +6.4%qoq); the figures represented some 23-24% of our and consensus FY11 estimates. While noodle segment’s EBIT still grew by 12.4%yoy, dairy segment’s EBIT contracted by 21.8%yoy due to rising input costs.

Risk of industry contraction. During 1Q11, instant noodle industry volume contracted by around 0.7%yoy. In conjuction with our previous report, we think this could be due to industry-wide ASP increase in January 2011 that restrained consumer purchasing power. This situation, combined with our economist's view of no more deflation this year, reiterates our view to wait and see whether industry size may further contract amidst imminent inflation and noodle ASP increase.

However, margin improvement may help... Even though risk of industry contraction is still lingering, we think the company’s performance in the next quarters could be stable due to margin improvement as ASP increases in both noodle and dairy products during mid 1Q11 will fully come into effect. For noodle, the company increased ASP by some 7-8% in mid January 2011 with around 1 month time lag so that effective ASP increase during 1Q11 was only 2.0% qoq. The same case applied to dairy products with some 3% ASP increase in February 2011.

Maintain Neutral stance. Our DCF valuation with 13.3% WACC and 5.0% TG rate results in ICBP’s fair value of Rp5,200/share. We maintain our Neutral stance on the stock, which trades at PER11-12F of 16.3-14.8x, about 10% premium to its parent company. Main risks are input cost increases, and related-party transaction risks.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.49

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