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Kamis, 05 Mei 2011

SMGR:The merit of cheaper coal - Mandiri

Along with below-consensus 1Q11 results, we noticed that SMGR’s domestic ASP has been increased by 7.8% yoy as of March 31, the highest among peers. We guess that this was a result of slow sales during 3M11 due to bad weather then, coupled with hurdles in fully utilizing its production capacity following the recent coal conversion. The conversion, on the other hand, seems to have an immediate effect on the company’s operation, with COGS/ton increasing by only 4.7% QoQ. This is good, especially as commodity prices are expected to continue rising later this year. We think catching up on sales will be much easier to do than to further mitigate rising production costs, currently faced by its peers. We maintain our EPS11F of Rp670 for SMGR. Nonetheless, our valuation is unchanged at Rp9,100/share, thus we maintain the Neutral stance on the stock.

Below- consensus 1Q11 results following bad weather and operational transition. SMGR posted Rp871bn 1Q11 net profit, which was below our and consensus estimates. Tepid sales growth of only 1.4% yoy during the 1Q11 was seen as the main cause to this, following bad weather and operational transition marked by the recent coal conversion for its production. The bad weather even caused floods in Feb-Mar in its Gresik plant, hampering cement transportation.

Sales to catch-up as weather improved. The company said that they are now back on track, even with confidence that sales should picking up as the weather improves. This will be attainable, although competition will be tight especially as other major producers, namely INTP and SMCB, may continue to vie for higher sales volume through prices. Our sales growth assumption for SMGR in 2011 is +3.5% versus internally 6%.

Cost should be less of a pressure thanks to recent coal conversion. But thanks to company’s recent coal conversion that now is using 100% medium cv coal. SMGR seems to have the least COGS/ton increase at end of Mar11, compared with INTP of 7.3% and SMCB of 17.5%. The company added that the increase of COGS/ton to date was mainly contributed by the increase in packaging and transportation for raw material costs, that both rose by an average 20-30%

Upside potential seen, but maintain Neutral call. We see more potential bottom-line upside in the company in the remaining quarters, given better efficiency of its cost. We maintain our EPS11F of Rp670 for SMGR. Nonetheless, our valuation is unchanged at Rp9,100/share, thus we maintain our Neutral stance on the stock. SMGR currently trades at PE11F 14.0x and EV/ton US$293.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.52

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