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Jumat, 06 Mei 2011

Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ), production challenges, downgrade to SELL - CLSA

Nick Cashmore downgrades Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) to SELL (from previously BUY) with Rp20k TP. This is a non consensus call. Of the 26 analysts covering PTBA, there are only two SELL recommendations. Our number is also 13% below consensus.

Surely, PTBA has massive long term potential (7.3bn tones of resources and 2bn tones of reserves) but execution has continued to be disappointing.

After a recent co visit, we think guidance of 13.6mt for 2011 looks ambitious now that additional rail wagons have been delayed until 3Q11, a six-month delay from original intentions. We have reduced our volume to 13.1mt this year and 15.5mt in 2012.

Lifting existing capacity above 16mt requires double tracking parts of the existing railway network, a project undertaken by KAI, the state-owned railway operator. Given the delay in infrastructure projects, we have concerns on the ability of KAI to deliver additional rail capacity on time and budget.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 13.32

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