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Rabu, 04 Mei 2011

PTPP IJ is one stock to accumulate in weak market - JP Morgan

1) FY11 earnings set to grow aggressively. PTPP entered the year 2011 with Rp6.0trn worth of carry-over project, more than double the amount (Rp2.6trn) when it entered year 2010. The Rp6.0trn backlog, coupled with Rp3.0trn new contracts obtained during 1Q11, stacks-up well against FY11 revenue target of Rp8.5trn (in other words, the revenue projection is almost in the bag). FY10 actual revenue was Rp4.4trn, so the Rp8.5trn forecast represents a 93% yoy increase. PTPP management targets FY11 net profit of Rp335bn, on the back of Rp8.5trn revenue and 4% net margin, or 66% yoy (implied FY11 P/E of 9.9x).

2) Zero option value on the government fixing land acquisition law. Infrastructure investments have picked-up considerably even before the government addressed the land acquisition hurdles, which set to accelerate when it does. I personally think there is a good chance that the law can be passed within the next 12 months, to ensure president SBY leaves with good legacy (his term will end in 2014, and it may take 2 years for the country to feel the impact of explosive infrastructure investments with revised land acq law). PTPP is the stock to buy when the event occurred, being state construction company with low financial leverage, allowing the company to further double revenue in year 2012 without capital constraint.

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