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Rabu, 04 Mei 2011

Corporate Result Flash Medco Energy - Bahana

1Q11 performance
§ MEDC’s 1Q11 net profit reached USD10m (+11% y-y), around 1% above our estimate (26.3%) but 5% lower than consensus’ projection (exhibit 5). We expect 1Q11 earnings to form 25% of full-year forecast.
§ 1Q11 sales were up 37% y-y to USD255m but with COGS jumped 46% y-y (on higher production and lifting costs), gross profit was up just 22% y-y. Oil and gas revenues, which contributed 65% to revenues grew 33% y-y on higher oil prices, while sales of chemicals and other petroleum production increased 90% y-y contributing some 14% to revenues.
§ With operating costs up 32% y-y, operating profit growth slowed to +16% y-y, accounting for some 2% above our estimate, but in line with consensus estimate.

Outlook
In 2011, we expect the company to book USD48m in net income, which is down 42% y-y on lack of stake sale. For 2012, MEDC expects some stake sale and this will provide additional boost for earnings next year. However, we expect some earnings revisions as we are planning to upgrade our current oil price assumption from USD95/barrel to USD100/barrel.

Recommendation and valuation
We continue to maintain our BUY recommendation and IDR4,300 DCF-based target price on MEDC. Currently, the stock is trading on 7.6x EV/1P reserve or 6.5x EV/2P reserves.

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