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Rabu, 04 Mei 2011

TINS:Momentum play - Mandiri


TINS’s 1Q11 results were inline with our and consensus expectation in light of the monsoon season. 1Q11 production of 8.5k tons accounted for 22.4% the company’s and our FY11F targets of 38k tons. Attractively TINS’s gross margin has recovered and increased to 28.6% higher than in FY10 and our FY11F expectation of 24.7%. 1Q11’s ASP was US$29.7k/tons, near our FY11F’s ASP of US$30k/ton. Lower volume was part of the company strategy to reduce supply in the market and to get better margin, supporting its campaign of “Go deeper & Go offshore” by increasing its “strip ratio” in expensive mining area. Please note, TINS’s reserves in 2010 increased 13.5% yoy to 394.5k tons based on higher long term tin price benchmark of US$22k/ton. Opportunity in the near term is seen based on tin price uptrend momentum (please see exh. 5). We maintain our Buy rating and TP at Rp3,600/share.

Lower 1Q11 margin is expected. Timah reported 1Q11 revenue of Rp2,249bn (+22.5%yoy, -17.4%qoq) followed by net profit of Rp355bn (+150.1%yoy, -24.9%qoq). Higher earnings were driven by higher ASP of US$29.7k/ton (+75.0%yoy, +20.3%qoq). And lower margin is expected as we had mentioned in our last report on 13 April 2011. Refined tin production was lower at 8,5k tons (-8.2%yoy, -24.4%qoq) due to lower inventory being used. Higher tin in concentrates of 8.2k tons in 1Q11, +9.9% yoy, mostly come from offshore production.

Cuts sales volume to get better price. Timah booked lower sales volume in 1Q11 of 7,992tons (18.2% yoy, -28.9% qoq) mainly as part of company’s strategy for a better pricing in the next quarters. Timah has changed its strategy starting this year onwards by increasing the spot contract to 50% from 20% previously. Therefore refined tin inventory increased 23.4%yoy to 3.3k tons in 1Q11.

Farther expansion in tin chemical., Timah is more confident with its premium product-tin chemical-which has less competitors and has higher margin. Timah’s management has decided to expand farther its tin chemical project up to phase 5 with total capacity of 50k tons commissioning in 2014 in Bangka Barat and Bangka Belitung. Tin chemical is expected to commercialize in 2Q11 with expected production volume of 6k tons by end 2011.

Reiterate Buy, Maintain TP. We prefer to be conservative maintaining our forecasts and our TP at Rp3,600/share implying only 12.0xPER11F. At current price, TINS is traded attractively at 9.5xPER11F offering 26.3% upside potential. We reiterate our Buy rating on TINS.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.45

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