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Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

PT TELKOM (TLKM): In-line +2% Y/Y 1Q11 EPS – Watch 19 May EGM for Buy-back - Credit Suisse

We continue to reiterate Consolidation in Industry continue to benefit the Top-3 Incumbents and therefore we reiterate Overweight Indonesia Cellular. However, as Telkomsel’s market share remains very dominant outside Java, that remains a downside risk being the largest operator! On upcoming Share buy-back plan, I personally recommend Trading Buy TLKM (@Rp7,650- 12.0x-11.1x 2011F-12F PER, 4.6% 2011F Dividend Yield and implied 27% upside to DCF Rp9,750)! However, I continue to see TLKM ADR/Stock as a Short Candidate for Long-Short Strategy.

· Colin McCallum: PT Telkom has released headline consolidated results for 1Q11. While the 1Q11 information memorandum, and the detailed results of cellular subsidiary Telkomsel (Not listed) have not yet been released, headline revenue rose by only 0.7% YoY and consolidated EBITDA fell by 4.5% YoY. Nevertheless, given the decline in depreciation and amortization (since amortization of the KSO acquisitions ceased in FY10) net profit before forex was able to rise by 1.7% QoQ and 2.3% YoY. We highlight that 1Q tends to be weak seasonally; as a reminder total cellular industry revenues declined by 5.3% QoQ into 1Q10 and 6.8% QoQ into 1Q09, and XL has reported a 4.0% QoQ decline in cellular revenue into 1Q11 (though XL’s 4Q10 cellular revenue result had been much better than Telkomsel’s). While the 1Q11 results account for only 23.2%, 22.8% and 21.3% of our FY11 forecasts for consolidated revenue, EBITDA and net profit (before forex) respectively, those FY11 forecasts still look achievable.

· We removed PT Telkom from our regional top picks on 28th April, given that the stock had bounced 16.7% from its recent lows and given that our preferred exposure to the Indonesian telecoms sector is through Indosat or (indirectly) through Axiata. However, the AGM on May 19th is set to approve the “Shares Buy Back IV” programme, which would allow the company to buy back 416.7mn shares (2.07% of the shares in issue) for a maximum of Rp3.0tn. From a purely technical perspective, this might be thought of as providing a relatively firm “floor” for PT Telkom shares at Rp7,200 across the coming months. On fundamentals, we view purchase of shares in PT Telkom, which we value at Rp9,750/share using DCF, as a very good use of the company’s strong balance sheet (net debt to EBITDA 0.3x for FY10, falling to 0.2x for FY11E), and it is set to drive up EPS, ROA and ROE.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.28

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