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Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

Upgrading Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) from SELL to OPF - CLSA

We have been the biggest bear on Telkom Indonesia since our SELL initiation blue-top on the stock– we were the lone SELL on the street when we initiated.

The stock has underperformed the JCI by 4%, 8% and 30% on a 1M, 3M, and 12 timeframe

However today our telco analyst Dee Sena is upgrading the stock to an O-PF on a near-term view but still remain cautious on the long-term as the telecoms market is rapidly maturing and remains SUPER competitive.

WHY? TLKM has surprised considerably on the upside by scaling up its buy-back to IDR5tr (USD$580m) from initial expectations of IDR1.5-2tr.

This is a material positive event increasing total yield to 8% in 2011, boosts key ratios (EPS, ROE) while gearing remains manageable.

More importantly the USD$600m buyback represents 55% of TLKM current cash-balance and these funds going to shareholders de-risks it getting deployed on value destructive investments/acquisitions.

Also history shows us that large-buy backs (above Rp2tn) have been positive events for TLKM’s share price as was the case in 2005 and 2007 A small buy-back of only Rp465bn done during the global financial crisis had limited impact but the size of the buy-back was much smaller and of course those were extraordinary times.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.11

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