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Rabu, 18 Mei 2011

China's critical coal inventory - CLSA

Ongoing dollar bounce (risk off trade) has shaken confidence in the commodities space. However, we feel that fundamentals of thermal coal is looking increasingly compelling. China seaborne thermal coal consumption has been stronger than expected with further upside likely.

Yesterday at the CLSA China Forum 2011, David Fang of the China Coal Transport and Dist Association said power consumption growth of 13% 1Q11 yoy is outstripping domestic coal supply. Key driver of the increase is strong industrial production, which typically represents 60% of power demand.

In some provinces stocks are at extreme levels with Hunan province holding the equivalent of just 4 days of use. Demand is having an impact on prices with benchmark seaborne FOB at a two-year high of 820 Yuan/ton. Mine consolidation has intensified this supply shortage. Meanwhile, railway transport is an additional bottleneck, a situation that is likely to last for the next 2-3 years.

Jayden Vantarakis, our new on the ground resources analyst (another Melbourne Boy who previously covering resources on the corporate credit side. He speaks fluent Bahasa ). He notes Indonesia is best placed to meet the short term demand increases due to lower freight days compared to Australian and South African producers, which is important when power stations in SE China have low coal stocks as low as 4 days. A pick up in expectations for 2H11 Baltic Frieght index to 1,500 from current levels of c. 1300 also supports this. Coal represents 30% of shipments under the index.

Stocks likely to benefit: BUMI has the highest leverage to China consumption of the Indonesian thermal coal plays with China as its biggest customer. PTBA has the least in the sector at 4% due to 68% domestic market sales.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.20

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