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Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

Global Emerging Markets Strategy - Hurry Up and Wait - Citigroup

 Staying the Course — We reiterate our bullish view on EM equities; our end-year target for MSCI GEMs remains 1,500, or 31% above current levels. The pullback som farin May (-6%) is reminiscent, in terms of timing, of the spring corrections in recent bull market years. Each of these corrections was followed by a strong rally to year-end.
 Stuck — The peak-to-trough range for EM equities this year (11%) is the narrowest since 1996 (see below). So, the selling has not been heavy, but the asset class is ‘stuck’. When the break comes, we expect it to be to the upside.
 Corrections — There has been a ‘spring’ correction in MSCI GEMs (averaging 17%) in five out of the past six ‘bull market’ years. After these corrections, the average rally to year-end has been 38%. Asia has tended to outperform during the corrections (as in this Q2), while Latin America and EMEA tend to outperform in the rebounds. On a sector basis, global cyclicals and Industrials tend to lead the rebounds.
 The Dollar and Commodities — The latest pullback (not yet a correction) has been caused, in our view, by a bounce in the dollar and is tied in with weaker commodity prices. While the correlation between EM equities and commodity prices has fallen sharply in 2011, the link with the dollar remains strong. EM equities should resume their bull run when the current dollar rally ends; there is resistance at €1.38-1.39.
 Valuations and Catalysts — EM equities trade at 10.3x forward, a 10% discount to their recent average. Our year-end target implies multiple expansion to 12.6x 2012 earnings, a 10% premium. If GEMs just return to their long-term average multiple, they would rally 20% to year-end. Catalysts: i) a resumption of the dollar’s downtrend; and ii) the approach of the rate peak in key EM countries.
 Top Picks — Countries: China, Korea, Russia, Brazil; Sectors: Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.10

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