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Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

Indocement (INTP IJ), capacity for growth - CLSA

Analyst Di Shui slightly lowered Indocement (INTP IJ) recommendation with an OPF call and TP of Rp18,500. INTP is the most profitable Indo cement producer with 36% EBIT and nearly 30% net profit margins.

Interesting to note that in his recent annual note, Warren Buffett shared some of his wisdom on what and how to invest in an inflationary environment. The most superior group he picked is high ROIC low capital businesses. In this regard, INTP with ROIC of 37% this year and 43% next year looks like a wonderful asset to own in the inflationary environment.

Interesting backdrop: Indo cement consumption rose 10.7% YoY in 4M11.
INTP is best poised to capture demand upside.
At 68% capacity utilisation in FY10, INTP has ~6mn tons excess capacity, more than double SMCB and triple SMGR supply in FY11.
Earnings will also benefit from a strengthening Rupiah with 60% COGS are US$-linked and 90% of revenue is rupiah denominated.
Flush with cash: an attractive liquid private sector proxy to Indo cement consumption. INTP had around US$580 cash and generating the same amount of operating cash flow annually.
Higher energy costs have historically been passed through to end users.
Even the 110% surge in coal prices (in Rupiah terms) during the first 7 months of 2008 were passed through, via a 24% rise to ASP in FY08.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.16

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