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Rabu, 18 Mei 2011

INTP Expecting higher dividend - Kim Eng

What’s New
􀂃 Indocement’s 1Q11 net profit rose 10% y/y to Rp865b (Rp235/share) on the back of 15% y/y higher revenue (+15%y/y).
􀂃 On a quarterly basis, net profit inched up 3% q/q despite 3% q/q drop in revenue due to slightly lower sales volume.

Our View
􀂃 The bottom line result is slightly better than our estimate at 25% of FY estimate, although revenue is inline at 23% FY11F. Margin was resilient, partly thanks to Rupiah appreciation which helped to mitigate the impact of higher energy cost. Fuel and electricity cost was 15% y/y higher compared to 1Q10 at Rp680b, but this is modest compared to 62% y/y increase in coal price in 2010.
􀂃 Indocement will pay Rp263 final DPS, 30% of FY10 net profit and lower than our estimate of 35% payout. The reason behind the lower payout is beyond us, as its balance sheet is fortress‐like, with cash balance close to Rp5t (US$585m) as of end of March 2011, no debt, and operating cash flow of ~US$70m every quarter.
􀂃 We believe higher dividend payout is just around the corner. Even if Indocement decides to proceed with the construction of new, 3mtpa plant, the company can still finance it internally, as the plant would cost just ~US$600‐700m, spread out over 2‐year period. On top of that, Indocement’s parents might need some assistance to repay its short‐term debts which amount to EUR727m as of end of March 2011.

Action & Recommendation
􀂃 We upgrade our recommendation on Indocement to BUY from HOLD as recent correction makes the counter attractive. Our TP is unchanged at Rp19,150, pegging the stock at 20.4x and 17.0x 2011F and 2012F PER respectively.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.14

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