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Rabu, 18 Mei 2011

SMCB Volume over margin - Kim Eng

What’s New
􀂃 Holcim’s 1Q11 net profit inched up 2% y/y to Rp209b, the least among listed cement producers, on the back of higher tax rate during the period at 30%, compared to 27% in 1Q11.
􀂃 The company trimmed export sales in 1Q11, with export volume dropped 57% y/y to 170k tonnes while domestic sales volume surged 24% y/y to 1.62m tonnes.

Our View
􀂃 The result is inline with our estimate on the bottom line at 23% of FY forecast. Sales came above our forecast at 26% FY11F due to very strong growth in Holcim’s home market in Java in 1Q11 at 12% y/y.
􀂃 Aside from robust cement sales, Holcim’s revenue growth was also contributed by strong performance in the RMC division where revenue surged 45% y/y to Rp253b. RMC now represents 15% of total revenue, an increase from 13% a year ago.
􀂃 COGS increased 26% y/y, higher than the 23% y/y revenue increase. Holcim’s profitability was inferior compared to its peers, with EBITDA margin of 28.1% vis‐à‐vis 40.7% for Indocement and 33.3% for SGG.
􀂃 Holcim stands the foremost beneficiary of stronger Rupiah. On top of relatively lower cost in Rupiah term from USD‐linked items, it also carries US$122m of USD‐denominated liabilities in its balance sheet.

Action & Recommendation
􀂃 We maintain our BUY recommendation on Holcim with Rp2,425 TP, pegging it at 20.0x 2011F PER. The stock trades at the lowest EV/ton among cement producers at US$272 vis‐à‐vis US$345 for Indocement and US$356 for Semen Gresik.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.16

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