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Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

Tower Bersama Infrastructure:Buy; Rp2,300; TP Rp2,700 prev Rp3,200; TBIG IJ; Offers good long-term value - DBS Vickers

• 11F/12F EBITDA cut by 15% after imputing lower leasing rates following re-negotiation of power costs
• TBIG still offers 37% EBITDA CAGR over FY10-12F, strongest among listed tower players
• Maintain BUY at revised DCF-based TP of Rp2,700; may be more upside from potential acquisition of large tower portfolio.

FY11F/12F EBITDA cut by 15% each. We over-estimated the premium leasing rates that TBIG could command by virtue of its superior tower locations. TBIG has renegotiated some contracts to pass on electricity costs to the tenants. As such, lease-revenue could be lower than we expected, but margins might improve slightly. Secondly, as Indonesian telcos are now leasing multiple towers, tower players are obliged to offer bulk discounts. Hence, we reduced our tower-lease rate assumption by 15%.

TBIG still offers strongest EBITDA growth in the sector. We like the management for its ability to grow the business without taking high risks. TBIG still offers 37% EBITDA CAGR over FY10-12F, much higher than other listed tower players. TBIG is trading at ~16x FY11F EV/EBITDA close to US peers’ valuation. However, TGIB could beat our 2011F EBITDA if it can acquire a large tower portfolio using debt. Indosat has often hinted at selling some of its towers. At 12.4x FY12F EBITDA versus 15x for US peers, TBIG offers better long-term value. Maintain BUY at our revised-DCF-based Rp2700 target price (WACC 11.5%, terminal growth 4%).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.05

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