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Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

BNI - Lower payout to preserve capital - Deutsche

BNI shareholders have approved a 30% dividend payout, which is below our payout assumptions of 35% throughout our forecast years (2011-13F). The payout ratio implies a dividend per share of Rp66, which translates to gross yield of 1.7%. Despite the lower payout, we believe this would be beneficial in preserving BNI's capital. Subsequently, we have adjusted our projection to reflect the lower payout. Post adjustments, BNI CAR should rise by 20bps in 2012F to 16.3% and by 30bps in 2013F to 15.5%.

Post lower dividend payout, BNI should be well on its way for a sustainable loan growth level of 20-25% per annum for the next three years, without much risks to capital. The adjusted ROAE remains muted and the bank should still be able to deliver ROAE of 14-17% in 2011-2013F.

We maintain BNI with a target price of Rp5,000 as one of our top picks in the Indonesian banking. At 1.9x FY11E P/B, BNI is amongst the cheapest banks in our Indonesian banking universe. The bank's transformation also continues to gain momentum. We expect better earnings for BNI in the subsequent quarters as write-offs for medium segment loans should moderate.
It is also in the proces to accelerate asset recoveries of Rp2.2tr in 2011F, of which Rp333bn was already achieved in 1Q11.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.13

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