Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

Bank Negara Indonesia : Buy; Rp3,950; TP Rp5,000 prev Rp4,300; BBNI IJ; Turnaround underway - DBS Vickers

• Poised for turnaround in 2H11 and 2012
• Improvement in asset quality in 2011 means a cleaner platform for growth in 2012
• Acquisition on the cards for further expansion
• Maintain Buy, TP raised to Rp5,000


Turnaround imminent. Despite a sluggish 1Q11, which is the slow season, BBNI is still poised for a turnaround in 2H11 and even stronger result in 2012. Asset quality indicators have proven resilient and special mention loans have fallen. Loan growth will be slower than industry average and peers but it will have more ammunition as it gears up towards 2012.

Acquisition on the cards. BBNI is preparing to submit a proposal to the Minister of State Owned Enterprises (MSOE) for the acquisition of PT Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia (Bahana). Bahana has a stable of subsidiaries that complement BBNI, including securities/investment banking, asset management, micro business, and property management. This was purportedly motivated by the MSOE, but if successful, could give BBNI another growth platform.

Raised TP to Rp5,000; remain our high conviction stock. BBNI is still among the cheapest banking stocks, trading at 2.0x FY11 BV and 1.7x FY12 BV against industry average of 3.3x and 2.8x, respectively, and with strong growth prospects. Its operating metrics, such as relatively low LDR (74%) and high CASA to total deposits (60%) gives it the ability to growth. Our TP is raised to Rp5,000 (from Rp4,300) based on the Gordon Growth Model with the following assumptions: 18% ROE, 13% growth and 15% cost of equity, and implies 2.2x FY12 BV. We pegged our fair value to FY12 BV because of its imminent turnaround in 2012.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.06

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