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Rabu, 18 Mei 2011

GEM Equity Strategy - End of QE 2 - potential correction like QE1? - Credit Suisse

■ Valuations today are very different to the end of QE 1. In our report of 1 April, End of QE 2 – potential correction like QE 1?, we highlighted four key differences between the end of QE 1 and the end of QE 2, and hence our conclusion that a big 15% correction as occurred at the end of QE 1 was unlikely. In this report, we update those four differences. One, valuations. Figure 1 highlights that our four-factor GEM valuation indicator is currently 10% undervalued versus 11% overvalued at the end of QE 1. The key reason for this is earnings growth over this period as our four-factor valuation indicator includes historical P/E, P/E adjusted by inflation, dividend yield and the earnings yield adjusted by bond yield.

■ Other three differences are net foreign buying, TED spreads and a more sustainable US recovery. Two, net foreign buying of Emerging Asia (ex. China) over the past 12 months is 1.4% of market capitalisation, 40% lower than the 2.2% at the end of QE 1. Three, TED spreads (our proxy for risk of financial contagion) are 26 bps versus 45 bps at the highs then. Four, a more sustainable US recovery with non-farm payrolls averaging 233,000 currently versus just 39,000 at the end of QE 1. To these four differences, we add a fifth – signs of inflation peaking (see Figure 3 under ‘focus charts’).

■ Our strategy remains buying on dips. With our year-end target for MXEF (MSCI Emerging) being 1,350, we continue to suggest buying on dips as it represents 16% potential upside. Our biggest GEM Overweights are Korea, Russia and MSCI China.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.02

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