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Kamis, 23 Juni 2011

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) earnings upgrade - CLSA

Sarina Lesmina is upgrading UNTR recs to BUY and raises TP to Rp28,000. This is on the back of a slew of positive newsflow. Confident that heavy equipment manufacturing plant will recover by August, Komatsu Japan has confirmed it will deliver more heavy equipment units to UNTR. As such UNTR has upped their sales target to 7,500 units this year. Demand remains strong as UT’s 5M11 mining sales equipment has doubled YoY. UNTR’s PAMA has also increased target for overburden removal by 3.3% to 750m bcm, on the back of improving weather in Kalimtantan. Our very own on-the-ground analyst Amie “Komodo” Liem did some channel checking, talking to some coal traders and confirmed that demand from China has increased strongly this month. The feel was that as long as coal cargo was ready to go, price was not so much of an issue. Bodes well for UNTR. BUY.

Key points:
· UT increased their target for Komatsu sales and the productivity of its mining contracting unit as components market and weather improve. UT increased their target for Komatsu sales this year by 7% to 7,500 units (+38% YoY) from 7,000 units.
· Weak May sales were not a surprise, but recovery is expected to start in August. Komatsu market share rose to 52% from 46% in 2010, driven by stronger growth in demand for mining equipments.
· UT also increased the target for overburden removal by 3.3% to 750m bcm, on the back of improving weather. We also expect GP margin to recover to 15% from 13.8% in 2010, and forecast a 10-14% growth in OB removal and coal production.
· We raised our profit forecasts for UT, but believe there is more upside to come as their expansion plans unfold. We upgrade our profit forecasts by 7-9% for FY11/12. We expect net profit to grow 36% in FY11 and 20% in FY12.
· Upgrade Rec. to BUY with TP: Rp28,000. UT now trades at 13.7x PE12 and 12.0x PE13.

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