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Rabu, 22 Juni 2011

PT Harum Energy Tbk - Minority calculation under IFRS may impact earnings from 2012 onwards - Credit Suisse

● Due to potential changes to IFRS-based reporting for minority interest, we note that there could be differences in earnings forecasts for HRUM starting in 2012.
● Our earnings estimates using new IFRS reporting of minority interest would have been about 17% more than our earnings estimates under the Indonesian GAAP. We have not incorporated the new IFRS calculation for minority interest, given that the
company currently is still looking into ways to incorporate this and other changes into their financial starting in January 2012.
● While the new IFRS may closer reflect the cash flow generated by the company, we believe that market is aware of this and few forecasts might have incorporated the changes. We thus believe that valuation has priced in most of the positive news.
● We maintain our NEUTRAL and target price of Rp9,600, based on 16x 2011E P/E. Given that we do not expect much upside from coal price or production in next few months, we maintain our NEUTRAL view. We may revisit our view upon reserve upgrade due in 2H11 and any update on coal price expectation.

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