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Selasa, 21 Juni 2011

A series of new car launches in 2H11 ASII (TP Rp80,500) - Deutsche Bank

Launching three updated car models next month
The three cars that will receive facelifts include Kijang Innova (Toyota's second- best-selling car, accounting 19% of total 2010 sales volumes - 7-seater MPV), Fortuner (7-seater SUV) and Hilux (commercial - double cabin). These cars will be introduced next month at the Indonesia International Motor Show. In addition to these updated models, Toyota, together with Daihatsu, is expected to introduce the all new Toyota Avanza and Daihatsu Xenia, which are their best-selling cars, in November/December 2011. Overall, these launches could help enhance Astra's earnings given higher sales volumes as well as lower incentive costs to attract customers to buy these updated and new models.

Reiterate Buy rating with new TP of Rp80,500 (from Rp79,000)
We are increasing our derived value, which is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, to Rp83,712/share from Rp81,870/share, mainly to reflect 3-4% earnings upgrades adjusting for a higher earnings contribution from the automotive and heavy equipment division. Our SOTP valuation is derived from a 10-year DCF analysis of Astra and its subsidiaries, with the following key assumptions: WACC of 8-16% (unchanged) and a terminal growth rate of 5-6% (unchanged).

We calculate the WACC based on a risk-free rate of 6% (unchanged), an equity risk premium of 9% (unchanged), cost of debt of 2-8% (from 2-9%) and equity-to-capital employed of 16-100% (from 15-100%). Based on an average discount of 4% (a 10% discount for listed subsidiaries and a 0% discount for unlisted subsidiaries) to the SOTP valuation, we derive a target price of Rp80,500, equivalent to 16x 2012E earnings.

We rate the company, which we believe is one of Indonesia's best managed, as a prime beneficiary of credit expansion in Indonesia, high consumer confidence and a doubling of the middle-income population. Additionally, strong commodity prices provide upside risk to the earnings contribution from the Heavy Equipment and Agribusiness divisions, which account for 30% of consolidated net earnings.

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