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Kamis, 23 Juni 2011

Astra International: Buy; Rp60,000; TP Rp65,000; ASII IJ Strong recovery ahead - DBS

• Flat 4W sales in May, but 2H11 sales are expected to be considerably stronger led by normalised production and seasonally stronger demand
• May 2W sales breaks new high; AHM plant visit reaffirm our positive view
• Reiterate Buy, TP unchanged at Rp65,000

Flat May 4W sales volume, but 2H11 expected to improve. ASII’s 4W sales volume was flat at 32,153 units in May, inching up 1.4% m-o-m but slipping 2.1% y-o-y. The flat result was widely anticipated because of disruption to the auto production chain after the Japan quake. On a positive note, Toyota and Daihatsu have just resumed normal production and ASII dealerships’ inventories are likely to normalise by July. Coupled with growing pent up demand and stronger season for car sales, these would fuel ASII’s 4W sales the rest of this year.

May 2W sales break new high. May 2W sales hit a record high of 377,355 units (+0.2% m-o-m, +10.3% y-o-y), and ASII’s market share improved by 0.9 ppt m-o-m and 3.8 ppt y-o-y. Sales of 2Ws remained strong because ASII’s local content is c.98%. Hence, the impact from Japan ’s quake was negligible.

Reiterate Buy, TP unchanged at Rp65,000. ASII is trading at relatively comfortable 14.6x FY11F PE, 24% below its peak valuation in 2010. But heading into 2H11, the supply chain should start to normalise, while sales are also seasonally stronger. We expect sentiment to improve towards ASII, in line with expectations of stronger auto sales in 2H11. We maintain our positive stance on ASII.

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