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Rabu, 22 Juni 2011

Official 2W and 4W auto sales show good recovery by Sarina Lesmina - CLSA

May 4W sales was a flat +0.6% MoM, +1% YoY to 61,055 units. But shows that we are moving into recovery from the dip in April.

· Beginning June, the 4W sales are expected to recover further to 65,000 units per month, bringing the total FY11 to 802,170 units (up ~5% YoY). Toyota said it expects June sales to be 22,000 units, +12.8% MoM.

· 5M11 sales for both 2W and 4W rose by 16% YoY and 15% YoY respectively (coming from a lower base in 1H10). Astra's 4W market share remains stable in 5M11 at 55% just like last year.

· In 2W market, however, Honda remains the leader with 377,355 units sales in May (+2% MoM, +19% YoY). This put Honda a 9.8% ahead of Yamaha in terms of 5M market share. 2W market in May rose 10% YoY, 0.2% MoM. Negligible impact from the components shortage issues.

· We forecast a 15% YoY growth in 2W domestic sales this year to ~8.5m units. Honda's 5M11 sales of 1.74m units were 45% of our FY11E of 3.91m units (this is assuming 46% market share of Honda). But given strong ytd performance, we believe FY sales can be 5% higher than our original forecast.

· Maintain our positive outlook for Astra (ASII IJ); 2W contributes 15% to the group's earnings, but including financing, it is about 23%. We are reviewing our numbers on Astra. Pls see file for details.

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