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Minggu, 19 Juni 2011

Global Equity Strategist - Trends in a Trendless Market - Citigroup

Unhappy Equity Fund Managers — The median global long-only fund has underperformed this year. The average equity hedge fund has lost money. It seems like many investors are finding it hard to adapt to trendless markets.

Trendless — Global stock price indices have moved sideways this year. Return spreads amongst the sectors and regions have evaporated. Price momentum strategies, which worked well over the last few years, are now fading. From many angles, markets seem to be trendless.

The Grind Higher — We believe equity markets will remain trendless for sometime. Trendless markets are typical for this stage of the cycle, when stock prices Grind Higher with EPS rather than surge. Investors will have to get used to it in our view.

Trends We Trust — While broad indices have been trendless, there have been a few trends within global equity markets this year. Those that should continue to perform include CEEMEA over LatAm, Short Global Financials, Mid-Cap Over Large, De-equitisation and DM Stocks with EM Exposure. All these trends benefit from solid earnings momentum, attractive valuations.

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