Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 24 Juni 2011

INDONESIA BANKS Report: “Will the real competition please stand up?”–Overweight - Credit Suisse

Report- Buy BMRI, BBNI then BBRI, BTPN, Hold BBCA!

Teddy reiterate Overweight Bank Sector as Indonesia Banks remain most profitable globally. At the backdrop of competition for domestic deposits and remained fluid global liquidity, we continue to favour Banks with funding franchise (preferably high low-cost CASA) and low LDR (Figure 5 page 2), followed by Banks with high earnings yield (high NIM) (Figure 22 page 11), therefore we reiterate BUY BMRI, BBNI then BBRI, BTPN, while Hold BBCA due to fair-valuation!

· Teddy Oetomo (Report attached): Where is the real competition? We believe that the real competition in the Indonesian banking system is on the funding rather than the lending market (as shown by Figure 2). That means investors should position themselves on banks that either currently have excess funding or those with an ability to compete for funding to support their future growth.

· Tight and may get tighter. Tight funding means deposit rates are stickier on the way down. We foresee potential for even higher demand for loans if Indonesia moves into a higher investment cycle. In addition, the central bank’s LDR target policy resulted in tighter liquidity rather than promoting loan growth. High loan demand, combined with tight liquidity, will add up to higher competition for deposits in the future.

· Two types of winners. The first category winners out of the high loan demand and tight liquidity conditions are banks with low LDR and high CASA, namely, BMRI, BBNI and BBCA. The second category winners are banks with high lending rates and NIMs, which allow these banks to be more competitive in securing deposits to fund their loan growth. This category includes BBRI and BTPN.

· Initiations. We initiate coverage on Bank Tabungan Pensiun Nasional (BTPN.JK) at OUTPERFORM with a target price of Rp3700/share and Bank Jabar Banten (BJBR.JK) at NEUTRAL with a target price of Rp1320/share.

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