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Jumat, 24 Juni 2011

JP Morgan slashes oil price forecast after IEA release - Reuters

(Reuters) - J.P. Morgan slashed its forecasts for crude oil prices in the third quarter after the International Energy Agency on Thursday announced the release of 60 million barrels of oil over the next month to shore up the economic recovery.

The bank now foresees the price of Brent crude to average $100 a barrel in the third quarter, down from $130, it said in a note to clients late on Thursday.

"If pursued rigorously, the 60 million-barrel sale over 30 days is a sufficient volume to cause a very substantial drop in the oil price," said J.P. Morgan analysts led by Lawrence Eagles.

"IEA countries have replaced OPEC as the supplier of the marginal barrel to the market, with significant pricing power conferred to the U.S. by virtue of its large contribution to the release pool."

The offer of strategic oil inventory "should be seen not only as a stop-gap due to insufficient global supply, but also as an injection of stimulus into the world economy, and result in a significant shift in world oil pricing dynamics in the third quarter," the bank said.

The new forecast is the same that J.P. Morgan had before the disruption to Libyan supplies, the note said. (Reporting by Alejandro Barbajosa;Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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