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Kamis, 23 Juni 2011

Banking Feedback from client meetings - DBS

• Investors were selectively overweight on Singapore banks amid market uncertainty; some investors were gradually looking at re-positioning into Singapore banks as regional laggards and as defensive picks.
• Malaysian banks’ M&A plays largely priced in. Discussions on HLBK-EON merger and M&A scenarios for RHBC were the main highlights.
• Concerns on the Thai politics could cap Thai banks’ upside in the near term. Investors prefer to wait till the political dust settles.
• Investors remained cautious on Indonesian banks due to relatively rich valuations; but concurred that long-term growth prospects are attractive.
• Our top picks remain OCBC, BBRI, KBANK, HLBK.

Malaysian M&A catalyst priced in along the way. Our key theme on M&A event drivers for Malaysian banks materialized as our meetings progressed. Our high conviction pick, HLBK gained 28% since May with the acquisition of EON. Investors were keen on RHBC’s M&A scenarios as central bank approved merger talks.

Thai politics put a lid to short-term upside. Thailand ’s economic growth remains strong while the banking sector’s fundamentals are intact. We believe there is value in Thai banks after the recent sell down and suggest investors to accumulate on weakness. Thai banks are well positioned as secondary beneficiaries post elections.

Keep Singapore banks as top picks, still selective on Indonesia banks. At current valuations, Singapore banks still offer the best risk-reward option with robust asset quality and strongest capital ratios. We are selective on Indonesian banks in view of their rich valuations but remain attractive long-term growth plays. Interest was on BBRI with mixed response for BBNI as investors remain uncertain on its transformation prospects.

Our top picks remain OCBC, HLBK, BBRI and KBANK. Our preferred picks are OCBC for Singapore , BBRI for Indonesia ; KBANK for Thailand . Despite the run up in HLBK, we believe there is still value to be extracted from the merger with EON. We see value in BBNI as a strong turnaround story for 2012 and continue to like BBL as a large-cap proxy to Thai banks’ corporate lending growth

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