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Selasa, 21 Juni 2011

ADRO / MNCN / ROTI / AUTO - Credit Suisse

Adaro Energy (ADRO, U, PT Rp2,050): Update on Central Java Power Plant Project
ADRO is scheduled to complete the financial closing for 2x1,000 MW power plant project in Pemalang, Central Java on August 31, 2011. Pemalang power plant is valued at US$3-3.5 bn (80/20 debt/equity). JBIC will fund the debt portion, and ADRO’s stake in equity consortium is 34%. Project construction and completion is scheduled in early 2012 and end 2014. ADRO is also bidding for 2x100 MW power plant project in South Kalimantan , worth US$350 mn, and the announcement is expected at the end of July 2011. ADRO is partnering with Korea East West Power Co. Ltd. For this project.

Sales commentary: We estimate Pemalang project to burn 7-10 mn tons of coal per annum, which is 15-21% of ADRO’s 2011 production target of 48 mn tons. ADRO is the most expensive coal stock in our coverage universe, currently trading at 17.7x 2011 PE with 87% 2011 EPS growth. We prefer Indika Energy (INDY, O, PT Rp5,400) and Borneo Lumbung (BORN, O, PT Rp2,000).

Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN, Not Rated): LT Debt Rating Upgrade by S&P
S&P raised MNCN’s long-term debt rating to BB- from B+ with stable outlook. The upgrade is based on MNCN’s improved financial performance in 1Q11, sound prospects for advertising spending and firm national economic growth potential. MNCN, through its three television subsidiary – MNC TV, RCTI and Global TV – commanded stable 37% market share per March 2011.

Sales commentary: Indonesia ’s 1Q11 ad spending went up 20% YoY to Rp15.6 tn, according to AC Nielsen. With the emergence of the middle class, as GDP /capita reached US$3,000, ad spending in Indonesia will continue to be robust. In 1Q11, ad spend was 62% spent on TVs and 35% broad sheet newspapers. MNCN is trading at 13x consensus 2011 PE with 22% average EPS growth in 2011-2013.

Nippon Indosari (ROTI, Not Rated): Targets 20-30% Revenue Growth in 2011
ROTI is seeking Rp240 bn through bank loans and/or bond issue to build bread factories in Jakarta , Palembang (S. Sumatra) and Makassar ( Sulawesi ). ROTI completed the construction of Medan bread factory in May 2011, and this plant is expected to contribute 10-15% to ROTI’s 2011 production. For 2011, ROTI is targeting 20-30% top line growth to Rp735-795 bn.

Sales commentary: ROTI is an interesting small cap name (US$325 mn), in our view. ROTI is 34% owned by the Salim Group, 34% Yap family and 8.5% Shikishima Baking Co. Ltd. – Japan ’s #2 bread producer. ROTI’s execution ability looks good with the recent completion of the Medan factory. Previously, ROTI was able to pass on cost increases to consumers, suggesting growing brand equity. We like stock – it is currently trading at 23.5x 2011 PE with 30% average EPS growth in 2011-13.

Astra Otoparts ( AUTO , Not Rated): Stock Split Effective June 24
AUTO will launch its 1 old-to-5 new stock split on June 24, 2011.

Sales commentary: Auto is not well covered by the market due to its low free float of 4.3%. Auto is 95% owned by Astra International (ASII, N, PT Rp64,000), which produces OEM and replacement market auto spare parts in Indonesia . The stock split is aimed to increase liquidity of AUTO shares in the market.

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