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Selasa, 26 April 2011

PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk A Marketing Breakthrough - AAA

We consider Holcim as the cement producer with the most innovative marketing strategy in solving customer’s needs and wants. The strategy is translated into selling the franchise of “Solusi Rumah” or Home Solution outlets. After the finalization of quasi reorganization, the company’s financial structure is strengthened due to elimination of negative retained earnings and it now allows Holcim to pay dividend to its shareholders. We view that growth opportunity is still widely open and this translated into our BUY recommendation.

± Sales Performance.
Sales volume in 2010 increased only by 0,1% to 7,8 million tons (include cement and clinker). Holcim holds about 20% of the market share in Java as 69% of the sales is sold in this highly populated island. Nationally, Holcim holds around 13% market share. The company has recently reallocated its target market from export to domestic market, causing a decline in export of 30% YoY while domestic sales grew by 4.5% YoY.

± Cement Sales Growth Driver
Indonesia’s economic growth which is expected to reach 6.4% YOY, will be the growth driver for the cement industry, and this will push cement demand by 6%-9% YoY based on demand for housing only. Rising disposable incomes and availability of financing are another positive factors. Furthermore, in Indonesia, residential mortgage to GDP ratio is just about 2% versus regional economies at about 4%. In a more mature market, such as Singapore, the ratio is as high as 35%. Hence, the upside is quite significant. Considering the above, sales volume is expected to grow by 6%-8% in 2011 and 2012.

± Quasi Reorganization Strengthening The Capital Structure
After the finalization of the quasi reorganization, the company’s financial structure is now stronger due to the elimination of negative retained earnings. This will open the possibility for Holcim to pay dividend to its shareholders commencing this year and it also increases its financial flexibility to finance future capex by utilizing debt. The company has announced to pay dividend of Rp178 bn or Rp23/share based on its 2010’ performance which reflected into a 21% payout ratio. Although net profit in 2010 declined by 7% YOY to Rp828 bn due to FX loss from USD denominated liabilities, the outlook is better as liabilities denominated in USD are much lower going forward.

± Valuation
Innovative products and services offered by the company are the most attractive things for its future growth. Sound economic environment and innovative marketing strategy will be the convincing growth engine for the company. We use blended valuation method that combined EV/Ton, Price to Sales Ratio and DCF in arriving at the fair value of the company at Rp 2.600. BUY
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 16.48

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