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Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

The Wall Street Journal Queensland floods push US coal prices higher

MASSIVE flooding in Queensland is disrupting global coal shipments, rippling into the US market where prices have surged.

Torrents of rain have shut down mines as well as rail lines and roads crucial for hauling coal to ports across much of the Australian state of Queensland.

Mines accounting for nearly a quarter of Australia's annual output of around 330 million tonnes have faced production problems over the past month, with companies such as Peabody Energy, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto saying they couldn't make shipments to customers because of the adverse weather.
Australia supplies about 3 per cent of the world's thermal coal, which is used to generate electricity. But as a top exporter of the fuel, even a small disruption can affect prices around the world.

The pullback in Australian exports comes at a time when unseasonably cold temperatures in Europe and a recovery in global manufacturing has driven up demand for thermal coal around the world.

Supply disruptions also have been seen in Colombia and South Africa, analysts said. About half of Australia's production is thermal coal, with the remainder metallurgical coal used in steel making.

The benchmark contract for Central Appalachian coal settled on Monday at a 25-month high of $US83.45 a tonne on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 11 per cent in the last week.
The higher prices should help shares in US coal companies that export thermal coal, including Consol Energy, James River Coal, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.

"Despite the one-time nature of (supply disruptions), we believe the recent price moves foreshadow an overall tighter supply-demand picture against the backdrop of a firming international economic picture," wrote analysts at Dahlman Rose & Co in a note to clients.

Dahlman Rose raised its price outlook for eastern US coal for this year to average $US72 a short tonne in 2011, from an earlier forecast for $US70 a tonne. The investment bank also increased its 2011 forecast for metallurgical coal by $US20 to $US230 a metric tonne. A short tonne weighs about 90 per cent as much as a metric tonne.

As the ports recover, higher-value metallurgical coal will be given priority, analysts with Macquarie said in a research note.

High-quality thermal coal from other regions will also be diverted into the metallurgical coal market, putting a further squeeze on global thermal coal supplies.
"Problems with supply should ensure that risks remain to the upside in the near term," Macquarie analysts wrote.

Customers in Asia will feel the pinch first, and will likely start snapping up coal supplies from South Africa and Colombia originally earmarked for Europe. US producers then have an opportunity to fill in the gaps European buyers face, leading to higher eastern coal prices

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