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Senin, 03 Januari 2011

AAA Securities PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Rights Issue: More Interesting than Peers

BMRI rights issue is more interesting than rights issue conducted by peers due to less dilution on EPS and ROE. Apart from rights issue, positive story in 2011 will come from potential recovery on written off loan and inorganic growth. Currently BMRI still traded at 3.3x PBV 2011 vs peers 3.4x PBV 2011. BUY.


±     BMRI Rights Issue, More Interesting Than Peers
Bank Mandiri already announced the detail of the rights issue which will be held in mid January – February  2011. Rights is offered at range Rp4,000 to Rp6,150. Meanwhile the exchange ratio is set at 8,985 (old) for 1,000 (new) or almost 18 lot (old) for 2 lot (new). What makes this rights issue is more interesting to investors is firstly, the less dilution on EPS since new shares issuance is only 10% vs that of BBNI 20% of total shares after rights. Even for retail investors, this is a good bargain compared to BBNI’s right issue which was offered at 1,000 lot (old) for 220 lot (new).


±     Proceeds Will Be Used to Finance Loan Growth in 2012F
Proceeds from rights issue will unlikely be used to finance loan growth in 2011F. as the bank still uses the bank’s business plan (RBB / Rencana Bisnis Bank). It is only in 2012F when BMRI will start to use the proceeds to finance loan growth. For the time being, the proceeds will be used to strengthen the bank’s capital, based on exercise price range of Rp9.4 trillion to Rp14.4 trillion. In 2011F, proceeds in our estimate, will be 80% on risk free rate instrument and 20% on cash, hence higher exercise price is positive to lift up net profit and CAR ratio.


±     Rp5.700 Should Be The Best Exercise Price
On proforma basis, best exercise price in our view is Rp5,700/share because EPS dilution will only be 2% compare to without rights, long term ROE in average 5 years forward is 24% and TERP discount to market price is 1%. Hence, share price will drop slightly due to adjustment in number of shares. With Rp5,700 exercise price, proceeds will be at Rp13,5 trillion, pushing up CAR ratio from 14.6% (without rights) to 18.5%, sufficient to finance 24% annual loan growth without additional capital injection until 2018F.


±     Valuation, Maintain TP at Rp8,200. BUY
Apart from right issue that positively will increase net profit growth, the reason to buy of BMRI in 2011 are, among others: 1) potential recovery from written off loans amounting total Rp32 trillion. We expect Rp2.9 trillion net recovery in 2011F generated from Garuda Indonesia (Rp1.1 trillion), Benua Indah Group (Rp247 billion), Domba Mas (Rp1,6 trillion) and other debtors. 2) Inorganic growth by acquiring insurance companies and another small banks, most likely micro. We reiterate our BUY rating on BMRI with TP at Rp8.200 (12-month period, without taking into account rights issue) in 2011F, implying 3.3x PBV at par with current PBV.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.39

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